The Arc is the one race each autumn that I plan my Sunday around, with this year’s renewal at Longchamp on the fourth of October looking like a cracker. There’s €5 million up for grabs over a mile and a half, with the market boasting a clear leader.
That leader is Daryz, who beat Minnie Hauk to win it last year. He came unstuck at Royal Ascot in June, so I had my doubts after that. Then he went back to Longchamp for the Prix Foy on the sixth of September and won by a length and three-quarters under Mickael Barzalona. His trainer, Francis-Henri Graffard, reckons he’s stronger this year, which might explain why the bookies cut him to odds of 9/4. At least one firm has gone 7/4 since.
Why I’m Not Rushing In
Here’s my problem. No colt has won the Arc two years running since Alleged in 1978, which tells you how hard it is to do. At odds of 7/4, you’re being asked to believe that he’ll beat that bit of history as well as an impressively strong field on whatever ground Paris serves up in October.
I’m not saying he won’t, of course. What I’m saying is that the price leaves very little room for anything to go wrong. If you want him on side then fair enough, but keep the stake sensible and have a look further down the list for some inspiration.
The Ones I’m Watching
Maltese Cross is the one I keep coming back to. William Haggas’s colt finished second in the Derby, then won the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp before landing the Great Voltigeur at York. He’s already won round the course, whilst odds of 5/1 or 6/1, depending on your bookie of choice, look like a fairer price to me than what’s offered on the favourite.
Kalpana won the King George and then hung on in a messy Yorkshire Oaks for Andrew Balding, whilst Joseph O’Brien’s Oaks winner, Thundering On, looked sharp in the Blandford. Keep an eye on Varandir too. He’s another Graffard runner who won the Prix Niel in record time, but he has other entries on Arc eve, so make sure he actually lines up before you back him.
