It’s not often you see Manchester United teetering on the edge of the relegation zone while also looking like favourites to win a European trophy. But that’s the situation we’re in heading into the business end of the 2024/25 season.
Whether you’re a United fan or not, it’s a fascinating storyline. On Thursdays, they look like they belong in the Champions League. On Sundays, they look like they’re trying to stay out of the Championship.
Let’s dig into their unbeaten Europa League campaign, the shocking league form, and the very real possibility that lifting this trophy is their only way back into Europe’s elite.
One Foot in the Final
First things first: United’s Europa League form has been nothing short of excellent. They’ve been unbeaten throughout the competition and just dismantled Athletic Bilbao 3-0 away from home in the first leg of the semi-final. That’s an outstanding result by any measure — winning by three goals in one of Spain’s toughest stadiums is no small feat.
With the second leg at Old Trafford still to come, it would take a collapse of epic proportions to stop them from reaching the final. Most likely, they’ll face Tottenham Hotspur, who are also heavily favoured to go through yet equally disappointing domestically. That would set up an all-English final between two clubs desperate for a piece of silverware and, more importantly, a route into next season’s Champions League.
The Premier League Plummet
While United have impressed in Europe, their Premier League season has been nothing short of a disaster. With just a couple of games left, they’re flirting with 17th place — a far cry from the top-four ambitions they had in August. They’ve been poor at both ends of the pitch, and the inconsistency has been painful to watch.
It’s hard to remember the last time United went this deep into a season with so little to play for domestically. They’ve already sacked a manager, brought in Rúben Amorim, and still look like a team in crisis most weekends. If it wasn’t for their European form, this season would already be signed off as the worst in the club’s modern history.
To be honest, it might still be even if they win in Europe.
Injuries and a Thin Squad
Part of the problem is the injury list. De Ligt is out again, having just come back. Lisandro Martínez is recovering from ACL surgery and won’t be back this season. Joshua Zirkzee has a thigh injury and is also ruled out for the remainder. Diogo Dalot is a doubt. Collyer and Heaven might be back, but neither is expected to feature heavily. Even Mason Mount and Amad Diallo have only just returned to fitness.
In short, Amorim is working with a patched-up squad. United’s bench looks bare, and a few starters are clearly running on fumes. That’s not ideal for a team trying to balance domestic survival with European ambition. And it’s no surprise Amorim has publicly said the squad isn’t strong enough to compete in both the Premier League and the Champions League next season.
The Champions League Carrot
That brings us to the real prize. If United win the Europa League, they’re straight into the Champions League group stage for the 2025/26 season. Given their league form, that’s their only realistic route back to Europe’s top table.
Financially, qualifying would be huge. It could be the difference between keeping key players and losing them. It would also make United more attractive to summer transfer targets. For a manager like Amorim trying to rebuild a squad, it’s the lifeline he needs.
🚨 | Manchester United will be guaranteed at least £70M if they participate in the Champions League next season, even if they LOSE all 8 matches.
If a team has a good season in the tournament, it is possible to get more than £100M.
[BBC via @ue_shm] pic.twitter.com/OY0b2u32Mp
— (fan) Frank 🧠🇵🇹 (@AmorimEra_) May 5, 2025
But it’s also a challenge. Amorim’s already made it clear that his current group isn’t deep or durable enough to handle both competitions. So if they win in Bilbao, United’s board will need to back him heavily in the transfer market — not just with one or two signings, but with serious investment across the pitch. Without it, they could easily find themselves in another crisis this time next year.
My Take
As a neutral and someone who watches a lot of football (and bets on it), I find United’s situation fascinating. This is a club on the edge — not of relegation, but of long-term decline if they don’t get this summer right.
Do I think they’ll win the Europa League? Yes. Based on how they’ve played in the competition so far — especially that 3-0 win in Bilbao — they’ve shown the kind of control and maturity that wins trophies. They’ll likely have to face Spurs in the final, and that won’t be easy, but I’d back United in a one-off game in Europe over most sides.
But lifting the trophy is only half the story. The bigger question is what happens next. Winning the Europa League gives United a chance to hit the reset button. Fail, and they’re staring at another year in the wilderness.
If I’m betting on it? I’d put a punt on them lifting the trophy. But I still see them finishing mid-table again next season if they don’t rebuild the squad properly. There’s a lot to play for in the next few weeks — not just silverware, but the shape of United’s future.
